ABSTRACT
The global efforts to control COVID-19 are threatened by the rapid emergence of novel variants that may display undesirable characteristics such as immune escape or increased pathogenicity. The current approaches to genomic surveillance do not allow early prediction of emerging variations. Here, we derive Dimensions of Concern (DoC) in the latent space of SARS-CoV-2 mutations and demonstrate their potential to provide a lead time for predicting the increase of new cases in 9 countries across the globe. We learned unsupervised word embeddings from 3,09,060 spike protein coding sequences deposited on GISAID database until April, 2021. We discovered that "blips" in the latent dimensions of embeddings are associated with mutations. We modeled the temporal occurrence of blips and their relationships with the number of new cases in the following months for these countries. Certain dimensions demonstrated a consistent leading relationship between the occurrence of blips and the number of new cases in the following months, thus labeled as potential Dimensions of Concern, DoCs. We validated the predictive importance of DoCs by performing Random Forest-based feature selection and modeling in a temporally split training, validation, testing regime. Twelve dimensions achieved statistical significance and achieved an R-squared of 37% for prediction of number of new cases in the following month. Biological exploration of DoCs revealed that dimensions 3 and 12 captures 3-mers CGG, ACG and CAC that are associated with known variants L452R, K417T and Q677H respectively. Learning and tracking DoCs is extensible to related challenges such as pandemic preparedness, immune escape, pathogenicity modeling and antimicrobial resistance.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Learning DisabilitiesABSTRACT
Immunization is expected to confer protection against infection and severe disease for vaccinees, while reducing risks to unimmunized populations by inhibiting transmission. Here, based on serial serological studies, we show that during a severe SARS-CoV2 Delta-variant outbreak in Delhi, 25.3% (95% CI 16.9 - 35.2) of previously uninfected, ChAdOx1-nCoV19 double vaccinated, healthcare-workers (HCW) were infected within a period of less than two months, based on serology. Induction of anti-spike response was similar between groups with breakthrough infection (541 U/ml, IQR 374) or not (342 U/ml, IQR 497), as was induction of neutralization activity to wildtype. Most infections were unrecognized. The Delta-variant thus causes frequent unrecognized breakthrough infections in adequately immunized subjects, reducing any herd-effect of immunity, and requiring reinstatement of preventive measures such as masking.
ABSTRACT
BackgroundIndia has been amongst the most affected nations during the SARS-CoV2 pandemic, with sparse data on country-wide spread of asymptomatic infections and antibody persistence. This longitudinal cohort study was aimed to evaluate SARS-CoV2 sero-positivity rate as a marker of infection and evaluate temporal persistence of antibodies with neutralization capability and to infer possible risk factors for infection. MethodsCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research, India (CSIR) with its more than 40 laboratories and centers in urban and semi-urban settings spread across the country piloted the pan country surveillance. 10427 adult individuals working in CSIR laboratories and their family members based on voluntary participation were assessed for antibody presence and stability was analyzed over 6 months utilizing qualitative Elecsys SARS CoV2 specific antibody kit and GENScript cPass SARS-CoV2 Neutralization Antibody Detection Kit. Along with demographic information, possible risk factors were evaluated through self to be filled online forms with data acquired on blood group type, occupation type, addiction and habits including smoking and alcohol, diet preferences, medical history and transport type utilized. Symptom history and information on possible contact and compliance with COVID 19 universal precautions was also obtained. Findings1058 individuals (10{middle dot}14%) had antibodies against SARS-CoV2. A follow-up on 346 sero-positive individuals after three months revealed stable to higher antibody levels against SARS-CoV2 but declining plasma activity for neutralizing SARS-CoV2 receptor binding domain and ACE2 interaction. A repeat sampling of 35 individuals, at six months, revealed declining antibody levels while the neutralizing activity remained stable compared to three months. Majority of sero-positive individuals (75%) did not recall even one of nine symptoms since March 2020. Fever was the most common symptom with one-fourth reporting loss of taste or smell. Significantly associated risks for sero-positivity (Odds Ratio, 95% CI, p value) were observed with usage of public transport (1{middle dot}79, 1{middle dot}43 - 2{middle dot}24, 2{middle dot}81561E-06), occupational responsibilities such as security, housekeeping personnel etc. (2{middle dot}23, 1{middle dot}92 - 2{middle dot}59, 6{middle dot}43969E-26), non-smokers (1{middle dot}52, 1{middle dot}16 - 1{middle dot}99, 0{middle dot}02) and non-vegetarianism (1{middle dot}67, 1{middle dot}41 - 1{middle dot}99, 3{middle dot}03821E-08). An iterative regression analysis was confirmatory and led to only modest changes to estimates. Predilections for sero-positivity was noted with specific ABO blood groups -O was associated with a lower risk. InterpretationIn a first-of-its-kind study from India, we report the sero-positivity in a country-wide cohort and identify variable susceptible associations for contacting infection. Serology and Neutralizing Antibody response provides much-sought-for general insights on the immune response to the virus among Indians and will be an important resource for designing vaccination strategies. FundingCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research, India (CSIR)